Full Steam Ahead: Reply RESIGN and other musings from Week 2

January 30, 2025
New JobBoard Doctor
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Happy Friday, Job Board Doctor friends! Another week in 2025 is behind us, and as we roll full steam ahead into February, the news cycle isn’t slowing down.

This week’s updates include the Fed’s decision to pause interest rate reductions, funding news, an X (or Twitter)-style mass email to 2 million federal employees, and the revocation of Executive Order 11246—stripping away 60 years of civil rights protections for workers and upending industries built around federal contractor affirmative action compliance, including job boards.

Full Steam Ahead: Here we go.

Fed Holds Steady on Interest Rates

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced it is in “no rush” to continue lowering base interest rates. While two tentative 25-basis-point reductions were expected in 2025 (the first in March), the timeline is now uncertain.

Why? The Fed cites rising inflation since September and uncertainty over potential tariffs set to begin as early as February 1 on U.S. trade partners to the north and south. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s only a 28% chance of a March rate cut, with CNBC estimating a reduction is more likely in late spring or early summer.

For now, higher interest rates mean increased borrowing costs for consumers, fewer dollars in circulation, and greater financial risk for small and mid-sized businesses.

A “Fork in the Road” for Federal Employees

In a bizarre move, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) sent an email titled “Fork in the Road” to more than 2 million federal employees on January 28, offering a “deferred resignation.”

What does that mean? It’s unclear, but possibilities include:

Working through the end of the federal fiscal year (September 30, 2025) before departing.
Leaving immediately but receiving a payout.
Experiencing a gradual reduction in workload as tasks are reassigned.

A key incentive? Employees who opt for deferred resignation are exempt from return-to-office (RTO) mandates.

As Trump orders all federal workers back in the office five days a week, My Perfect Resume released new findings on how employees feel about losing flexible work options.

So, how does a federal worker accept this offer? Simply reply with “Resign” in the subject line and hit send.

This feels like a middle school “Do you like me? Check yes or no” moment.

The expected resignation rate is 5-10% of those who received the email. Based on last week’s estimates, this would reduce the federal workforce by 3-6%, with further cuts anticipated.

For reactions, check out this Reddit thread.

More coverage here: Newsweek.

The Fallout from Ending Executive Order 11246

Many of you know I led the build of the world’s largest disability and inclusion hiring solution, where a job board is the primary revenue driver. Fortunately, our 2025 budget accounted for a worst-case Day 1 revocation scenario—though I was off by a day, as the order was revoked on Day 2.

What does this mean for U.S.-based diversity job boards?

Sharp declines in advertising revenue, especially for long-term and subscription-based listings.
A shrinking sales pool, forcing job boards to focus on employers truly committed to diversity hiring.
Margin shifts, leading to potential staff and resource realignments.

What should diversity job boards and compliance players do?

Don’t panic. I’m seeing a lot of it, and panic leads to bad business decisions. Take a breath, revisit your why, and realign.
Revise revenue forecasts. Plan for worst-to-best-case reductions.
Assess your offerings. Now is the time to expand or emphasize performance-based solutions.
Refine your messaging. Some companies will invest more, and some people love fighting back against policy rollbacks. Find them, inspire them, and show them how you help them attract top talent.

This is tough—I haven’t slept much in the past week.

Beyond job boards, this will hit compliance-focused job distributors like DirectEmployers, JobTarget, and Professional Diversity Network (PDN) and impact affirmative action compliance/data firms like CDI and Berkshire Associates.

We knew this was coming—I’ve been predicting it for nine months in my Disability Solutions webinars. Now, take a deep breath, secure your foundation, and prepare to weather the storm.